Thursday, July 1, 2010

The Russell Indicator Is Looking Weak

Back on May 9, I wrote a post on a technical thing to watch about corrections. The point was that in all good corrections, the small cap Russell tends to lead the charge from the bottom of the pullback. I showed charts of this from corrections in bull climbs and also from the cases where the Russell lagged in bottoming - with a bear phase following for the broad market. Well in our present pullback, the Russell is not leading a charge from a bottom. It is not lagging and it's in better shape than the S&P 500, staying mostly above its 140 day ema and not turning the 140 and 200 to a negative slope. But that's about all you can say for it. The Baltic Dry Index, even with the ship overbuild problem it is having, had been in a nonconfirmation mode on China's Shanghai bear behavior, if you want to consider the Baltic as a Transport Index for China and you pay any attention to Dow Theory. But now it has taken a nasty sharp turn down. The RLX U.S. retail index has been a leader group in the climb from the recession bottom, but now it is actually leading the S&P to the downside ! Tech and the small caps are still wanting to lead slightly to the upside. The leaders are going to have to get their act back together soon to continue a market recovery. They look like the three stooges, seriously disjointed for now.

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