Saturday, June 12, 2010

Gold's Support Level

Gold is, in some ways, behaving like it should if it were down at a major support level. GLD is in a distribution phase, the bullish percent index is at the low end of the range, and gold is on a back burner in the financial media's programming lineup. But gold is not in any big dip right now. In fact, it's right at it's all time high ! This would not be right if gold's proper bull market support level were the typical straight line. But, geometrically, it's entirely proper if the applicable support level is a curve:

The bull market since '01 is turning parabolic according to many gold bugs, and the recent support level behavior tends to support that thesis:

At each of the three major resistance levels over the last several years, gold finds itself near the all time high, but not exactly the hot item as resistance merges with a parabolic support level. We're right about at that juncture now as the parabola steepens.

Fractal analysis doesn't look at trendlines, just fractal dimensions, energy levels, and self-similar patterns. So it is a somewhat independent means of analysis. It's interesting that the fractal forecast last July called for a major surge to the upside (which happened) and is now calling for another such surge.

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