Saturday, January 16, 2010

CROX Turning into a BRIC ?

Crocs (CROX) gained fame as a flimsy fad stock a couple years ago when its stock zoomed to $75 because of the popularity of its comfortable shoes. It was one of the more spectacular victims of the consumer led decline. But the rumors of the death of the consumer were greatly exaggerated. All this has landed the stock in an interesting spot if you like the small retailers now (which I don't):

If you ignore the craziness of '07 and the overdone consumer death of '08, you may have a stock that just wants to migrate back to things like cash flow and stuff. It has a reasonable price / cash flow valuation of 12.8 - currently negative annual eps, but quarterly eps has turned strongly positive. Price / revenue is 0.9 thanks to the '08 hammering.

The possible migration back up was given a shot in the arm this week with the news of the company's dramatic expansion plans in India where they first entered with a joint venture in 2007. They are growing their exclusive outlet store count from 11 to 25 this year and their presence in general retail stores from 250 to 350 locations. The stock's technical picture is positive: (click to enlarge charts)

It has come a long way back up from near zero, but now that it probably isn't going to zero, it could be a brisk growth stock becoming more levered to the "I" in BRIC growth. It has tended to be a megaphone channel former in its climb so far. Breaks of these formations tend to be brisk. The 140 dma is a good divider of large scale bull and bear moves. CROX has gotten past a 140/200 crossover and successfully tested it twice now. There remains a large dose of investor skepticism - the float is 9% shorted. This one really moves when it moves with a churn on its low float of a whopping .049 (anything over .012 makes for fast movers). You probably should wait until it breaks the formation for a decent entry point.

1 comment:

  1. Bruce, Thank you very much for your perspective. I wrote extensively about Crox from a fundamental perspective ( The CEO presented at the ICR conference last week and he sounded very positive. The stock is looking very good!

    Michael Bigger